# The Market Sucks



## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Anyone else getting killed? Or just me? The only good news is that I'm not a German bank holding significant amounts of Greek paper.

BDL


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## Iceman (Jan 4, 2011)

_*WATCH OUT BDL!!!*_

Good luck if this even hints at being at all political. Vaporization is on it's way. 

I really hate uber-rich people. I hate the speculators that slash and burn the market daily on whims. Just remember though, you don't lose anything until you sell out at a loss. Fundamentals of a company are not related to or any reflection of speculators and up-down price swings. I would tell you to stay solid, and not to over-fear daily conditions as opposed to long-run possibilities. 

You do not seem to me to be a speculating day-trader. I apologize if I've offended you if you are. I'm not apologizing to anyone else though.


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## petemccracken (Sep 18, 2008)

IceMan said:


> ...I really hate uber-rich people.


Not me, I'm just insanely jealous! /img/vbsmilies/smilies/crazy.gif


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## chefedb (Apr 3, 2010)

BDL 

YOU ARE NOT ALONE . I have been playin market for abot 25 years. First time I have been down so much maybe 40 k total. I have seen it come back many times, but this time is different. These politicians and there non- doing self serving greed  have sealed our fate. From what I read  last month 16 billion dollars was taken out of 401 ks and Ira s. Soon they will have everybody on bread lines. German Banks? is bank America in any better shape  Billions in bad mortgages that are selling at a 50% discount here in Florida.

I just put a lien on a bank for monies owed our association(I am Pres.) and believe it or not they paid,  Lien cost me 10.00 to County Clerk. Plus cert mail cost. I did all leg work myself no attorney. We collected $6000.00


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## foodpump (Oct 10, 2005)

Who me? 

Any money I have, I invest back into my business.  It's my "long term investment scheme".

O.T.O.H. I have a lot of Swiss relatives jumping up and down, and telling everyone "I tolja so!"....


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## bazza (Apr 2, 2007)

Yep its pretty bad over here too. All I have to say is, if you were thinking of teaching your kids the value of money you'd better hurry up!


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## panini (Jul 28, 2001)

Please Stop complaining.

The President says that small business is going to fix all our troubles.

Have faith!!!!!!!!

If I make any more monies on precious metals I will be forced to buy a conviencence store! and put 2 people I can't' communicate with to work.

Oh wait!!! The news is telling me my health insurance rates are going down!!!!!!! I now pay 31,560.00 a year for my wife and I. Wonder what I'm in for???? Oh!!! That's after tax.


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## Iceman (Jan 4, 2011)

In the biggest picture, I think it's the giant market correction that for a long time should have been coming. In my silly opinionated ideology, 11 of the DJIA should split 2:1 and 1 more should go 3:1. That's just me of course. As it is today, the average is UP 6.62% from a year ago. WTF? Why is anyone unhappy, with today's savings rates, with a return like that? The best CD rate APY I could find in the last minute was 2.34%. Shoot, gold has made back $100 in the last week. Is anyone happy with that? 30-year Treasuries are yielding 3.27%. Anyway, maybe I'm just too grumpy.


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## greg (Dec 8, 1999)

Iceman, seeing as how you seem to be fond of criticizing the way this forum is moderated in public, I'm not going to do you the courtesy of responding in private. If you don't like the rules and the decisions made regarding them here, feel free to go elsewhere. You are becoming tiresome.


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## leeniek (Aug 21, 2009)

We've always used the so-called safe investments... neither of us knows enough about it to even consider the stock market.

I don't remember where I read it, but I saw in an article talking about real estate and that it's not the investment it once was. I guess with that timing is everything! I was looking at the MLS listings the other day as we are looking to sell next year and for the fun of it, I wanted to see what the expensive properties in town looked like and I found this

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10934947&PidKey=-570387318

Now there is no way on earth we would even consider buying it but it was interesting to look at the pictures and see what a few million would buy! I would love to see the home just for its historical value but I'm sure we'd have to dress formally or something just to be allowed inside!


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Don't worry, no politics, no blame, no market explanations, no investment advice.

_I wasn't asking for advice when I started the thread, just sympathy_.

Day trader? Don't know what that means anymore. If by "long term" you mean buy, close my eyes, hold forever, and hope -- then I am a day trader. If by "day trader," you mean make multiple trades every day, then not very often.

Every day I spend at least an hour studying the market; know what the futures are when the market opens; know the where all the market indexes are when it closes; know where the major commodities stand; and check my personal "positions" several times daily with an eye on the main chance. My picks are based on long term market and sector expectation, as well as the individual company's "fundamentals." But I'm willing to trade at any time. I don't see any virtue in riding a loser down to the bottom just because it seemed like a good investment when purchased. While it's more difficult emotionally to dump a dog than make an optimistic buy, I have one rule and it's "don't squeeze." But that's me, not you, it's certainly not advice, and I'm not recommending it as a life style.

A little volatility is one thing, but if you're in the market and paying attention, how can it be less than stressful? Even though I know that as a matter of history all recoveries from credit crises are flabby and anemic, and that the global credit crisis is ongoing, a bumpy ride down -- if only for a couple of months -- is distressing. August and the first three investment days of September made me nuts.

No matter how many years you've been doing it, no matter how strong your sangfroid, no matter how long your view, when your portfolio loses a bunch of money in a day, the loss may represent _only 0.3% _your portfolio, but it's still a bunch of money and your digestion still churns. Even if today you make back twice what you lost yesterday, yesterday still sucked.

Can I get an "Amen?"

BDL


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## panini (Jul 28, 2001)

BDL,

I sympathize. The thing that concerns me is,, Is it going to be a couple of months??? Actually history kinda tells us it is going to be years unless we pick up arms against

someone else.

I mentioned stocks here a couple of months ago because we all kind of knew this was coming. I was crusified, shot in the back 13 times and labeled a real jerk.

I was swithching everything over into bio. I'm fully concentrated in stem cell therapy. I just wanted some feedback. I'm ok for now. BUT!


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## chefedb (Apr 3, 2010)

The little guys like us will always get hurt >The SEC should regulate short sales when a broker can do it with a million shares. He then sets the price and risk in the rest of market. We can't win anymor. I am simply watching and when Mine break even  GET OUT. I will then buy distressed Flrida forclosures. @ weeks ago I went to a foeclosure auction on courthouse steps. A 165000 original price townhouse went for 15000. it needed some work but not 150,000 worth.


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## foodpump (Oct 10, 2005)

Chefedb:

Many stories here about local guys (Vancouver) buying houses in Florida and getting screwed over, some of the foreclousres are legit, some aren't.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Tuesday was bloody, but did get less awful as the day wore on. At market's close we'd "un-lost" more than half compared to the morning's debacle. Losing money isn't a good thing, but it could have been much worse. Today we did okay. [Shrug] It goes down, it goes up or it stays the same. What are you going to do?

By "a couple of months" I didn't mean I expected the market to turn peachy, but would pull the trigger on a diversified investment strategy rather than just hanging out so "long cash."

My grandfather used to say, "If there was a sure way to make a million dollars, everyone would be a millionaire."

BDL


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## oldschool1982 (Jun 27, 2006)

I noticed in one of the posts, someone...I think it was BDL....made a comment about "playing" in the markets.

Has anybody ever realized that is exactly what the stock market is all about? Playing, like a game of poker or more appropriate Russian Roulette! The stock market was built for the rich to legally gamble on their counterparts success or failure. It was never intended to be a sustainable source of income for anyone because of so many variables....the two biggest of which are the whims and idiosyncrasy's of the people involved.

We have a fund, I watch it go up and down with as much fluctuation as the price of gas. It's funny because I decided several years ago that this was not the way for us to go. We went with real-estate and happily, because of BRAC and a few other things.....we're not in too bad of shape. We never had the swing that was seen in so many other markets. Yet I will say that the markets may have worked for my parents back in the 80's but it wasn't going to be as sustainable as it has in the past. So....other than the contribution by the Company....which is going away soon too..... we don't contribute to it. Everyone talks about this "Market Correction" and that things will bounce back. I believe you're fooling yourselves and this is just a part of a big lie to keep your money flowing into their playground. It's my personal belief that it never will rebound in a healthy way, as long as things remain the way they are. There's just too much speculation. You'd almost be better withdrawing the money, taking the hit on penalties and fees and taking the money to Vegas or Atlantic city and throwing it on a bunch of different tables.

We also place too much emphasis on one position or role in things. It's the whole ball of wax and not just one individual or branch. Think about it. Who makes the laws? Who are the ones that have been holding their positions for 10-20-30-50 years? Now we have a new thought and he one person behind that thought has been ostracized by the talking heads. Plus......all I see are the people that benefited from all we that has done in the past 80 years, throwing their noses up and blaming the system for the problems. Everything we are afraid of becoming is present in every aspect of our society. It's all there. Socialism, Dictatorships, Fascism, Democracy.....I just can't seem to find any Republic or any of the beliefs that brought us the 210 years before all this mess started.

Where would any of us be without the schools and programs we all enjoyed growing up? I am a product of that "Boom" and believe you me.....I have much respect for the people that helped shape my life but all the majority of anyone does is jump on a band wagon and show contempt for things. Yes there is room for improvement but I have to agree with something that I heard someone say..........I'm all for rules of the road.....just smarter rules and some everyone will follow.

Playing the stocks, playing poker, playing Russian Roulette.........it's nothing more than playing the odds. Yet the one big difference is.......everyone that is running the show and playing these odds are screwing with our country and our lives. What they do doesn't just affect them and their circle.....it affects the whole world but until people start to see this......things are gonna get much worse before they will ever get better. Well....everyone can stop worrying about heading for a two class system......it arrived in 2006....We just had to wait for it to "trickle down"! 

IMHVPO and....................

That's all I have to get off my chest. Soapbox neatly tucked under bed once again.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Old -- Ed is the player, not me.

Congratulations on the success of your real estate investment. As you know, the broader, U.S. RE market took an epic hit in 2008 and has yet to significantly recover. Your position is unusual, as most RE investors would be better off had their money been in stocks. A wild up, down, up, down, up ride triggers a lot of anxiety but it's better than straight down and stay there.

The stock market is a primary vehicle for "capital" to increase its value without labor or direct involvement on the part of the capital holder, i.e., the _capitalist_. It is a fundamental and necessary part of _capitalism_ and a free market economy. It came about to allow: (1) Corporations and other joint ventures to seek funding from investors, without seeking a loan or giving up a great degree control and while protecting the stock-purchaser from liability; and (2) Investors the opportunity to trade their investments with one another.

While it's neither consistent nor safe, the stock market is hardly "Russian roulette." Russian roulette is a game you're almost certain to lose if you play long enough. On the other hand, the market's value largely tracks the economy and as the economy expands, the mass of equities will increase value at _roughly_ the same rate. The U.S. economy has been expanding -- with periodic fits and starts -- since before there was a U.S., and is likely to continue expanding -- with periodic fits and starts. Currently, we're either mired in one of those fits, or slowly emerging from one. It's true the market is not a safe place, even in the short term. "Stuff happens" to individual equities, even during a good economy. And while mentioning the market allows investors to make homogenized investments by buying one sort of index tracker or another; and that "diversified" investing is a hallmark of pre-retirement planning and not necessarily post-retirement income generation, I won't give advice.

It is widely accepted that both the broader market place in general and the stock market in particular require some degree of regulation in order to run fairly and well, and to protect the consumer/investor from fraud. One measure of partisan political affiliation is how much regulation you support. Another is whether you believe publicly collected retirement insurance (Social Security) should be invested in private stocks whether by the government (like some State pension funds are) or the individual (treating SS payments like a 401K) . Oddly, yet another is whether you believe we're still in recession and headed for the second dip of a double, or believe we're in a recovery.

No politics, so The End.

BDL


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## leeniek (Aug 21, 2009)

foodpump said:


> Chefedb:
> 
> Many stories here about local guys (Vancouver) buying houses in Florida and getting screwed over, some of the foreclousres are legit, some aren't.


I've heard the same thing as well. 60 Minutes did a piece earlier in the year about homeowners in the US walking away from their homes because they could no longer afford the mortgage and knew that forclosure was imminent. It was sad.. some of these people were middle aged and heading towards retirement when they were faced with that.


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## chefedb (Apr 3, 2010)

The mortgage and foreclosure situation is the fault of greed. Greed by the banks.Most homes here that were purchased the outstanding mortagage is more then the house could be sold for. Therefore walk away. There was a man down here on local news  82 years old not in best of health mentally applied for mortgage 250000 house 17000. down was approved for mortgage. 82 +30 is 112. Think he will live to pay it off? Yep blame the banks for the easy approval of mortgages and Oh yes  blame  Alan Greenspan too. Bank America holds more deinquent mo.rtgages then they have in cash I dont give them that long either, I hope I am wrong.,But look at Lehman Bros.


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## petemccracken (Sep 18, 2008)

Beg to differ ChefEDB,

Some of the blame has to be placed on our Congress persons and Administration that mandated the reduction in down payment requirements and the relaxation of income verification because "home ownership was for the public good".

A long time ago, someone figured out that homeowners, in the days of 20% down and 15 year mortgages, are responsible people. In our lawmakers infinite wisdom, they concluded, gee, if we make people homeowners, they will become responsible, therefore, lower the down payment requirement, lengthen the term from 15 to 30-40 years. allow interest only, and penalize the banks that don't comply. Dumb, dumber, and dumbest!

Old bankers died, and the new young bankers think this is the way it always has been.

Oh, to shore up the risky loans? Well, what do you think is the purpose of Fannie Mae and Fannie Mac, hmm????


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## panini (Jul 28, 2001)

Little off topic.

  Is it possible my no nothing little poker group bought a 6 yr old strip center in Nevada for 18 months back tax???

Let's see. That's about .060 value. No tenents. CAM 800. mth. We're running to marry each other to get this done!!!

I'm leary!!! But I'm in !!!!

You supposedly can see the strip from this property. Buddies say Culinary school!! I say depreciate it!!!!


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Pan, 

I'm missing something here. 

Your group will form an LLP (or some other liability limiting business form) to purchase; fund it only to the purchase price, plus the low monthly nut; the purchase price is something like 6 cents on the dollar of its actual, current worth; and you're going to try to move some sort of credit for "depreciation" to your personal income tax? 

How would that work?

BDL


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## petemccracken (Sep 18, 2008)

Awe shucks, I misread "strip center" /img/vbsmilies/smilies/confused.gif, I thought it was /img/vbsmilies/smilies/laser.gifstrip club!


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## leeniek (Aug 21, 2009)

This financial talk is all Greek to me... all I know is we get a statement every month telling us where we are at and that is good for us.


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## chefedb (Apr 3, 2010)

iTS YOUR $, YOU SHOULD BECOME MORE AWARE AS TO HOW IT IS INVESTED .In particular if someone else is investing for you ie 401k Ira, mutual etc.. They mske $ whether you gain or lose. You Do not.


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## leeniek (Aug 21, 2009)

That's what my sister in law who worked in banking for years keeps after us about.  Slowly we're becoming more aware but I find the tech talk of the financial world very challenging to say the least.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Today is looking bad as _The Great European Debt Crisis_ moves towards becoming very actual and very acute. European CDOS indicate investor belief of a 92% probability that Greece will default -- perhaps this weekend.

The drop in the markets here reflect the interconnectedness of major world financial institutions, reflects sell offs of American equities by European investors who are forced to raise cash, the hysterical nature of investors, and their tendency to overreact in the face of bad news. Today is not about the shorts, it's not about the "big guys," it's not about RE being better (RE will probably take a hit as well), it's not about the President's speech, his plan, or U.S. politics in any way.

It's about Europe, and is just one of those things. Things could look very different next week.

BDL


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## petemccracken (Sep 18, 2008)

My adviser said, "Cheer up, things could be worse!", so I cheered up and sure enough, things got worse!


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## leeniek (Aug 21, 2009)

LOL Pete... so I guess we should just all be grumpy? 

All joking aside we all have to watch out for our futures and for me that means becoming more aware and learning to understand the jargon that seems to impermeate the financial world.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

x


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

you all do belong to the church of cramer don't you?

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Lol. Cute little bugger. 

The guy knows a lot, is a great popularizer, and his advice to be flexible by cutting your losses, buying on the dips, and taking your wins makes a lot more sense than the "conventional wisdom" of buying to hold and holding no matter how bad a choice it was or became. 

But church? No.

Also, think the morning slot where he's on the Anchor by Committee which fills some of the void left by Mark Haine's loss doesn't really work for him. But... almost every "economic reporter" on CNBC and Bloomberg really, truly, deeply sucks. Cramer is a cross between Edward R. Murrow and Albert Einstein in comparison. 

BDL


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## chefbillyb (Feb 8, 2009)

I invest long term, some days I hold stocks three or four hours. I learned in 98, 99, before the DOT COM crash  to take profit. I aways tell people when your dancing in the streets, bragging about how much money your making, SELL............Waiting for the Euro to be Parity with the dollar............Lots of problems in Europe, just the beginning..................


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

bdl,

i love cramer's 'mad money'...he gives out a lot of information in a short amount of time to make good choices...i think he's brillant and funnier than hell, though i wouldn't want to have to live with him!....don't discount the women of cnbc... 'power lunch', 'the call', 'half time report' etc., maria being queen bee are all unbelievably good, and over the top smart as well. all i know is that it takes a lot of time and energy every single day to keep on top of it all....i don't do it as i don't have the patience, and money issues make me crazy, but for my husband, it's his daily grind.......interesting times for sure, and there are actually some good buys out there...but i have neither the stomach or the nerves for it.....

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

As you know I _really like_ competent women, but none of the regulars on CNBC impress me very much. The best you can say is that they're not Rick Santelli or Bloomberg's women of the morning.

AM Bloomberg is pretty much of a sorority party where every day includes a ton of Apple-news and analysis of product improvements like new i-phone colors. Bloomberg's morning women's attire frequently includes glam makeup and a cocktail dress. Bloomberg's AM boys, Dom and John are still weaker and equally pop-culture obsessed. I think they call each other every morning to co-ordinate their ties and shirt colors. They like lavender and pale blue.

Unfortunately Bloomberg's chirons, crawls and other graphics convey more meaning, faster than CNBC's. At least to me. So I watch more Bloomberg than CNBC in the morning -- which is at least an hour every weekday -- when I usually decide whether doing something is better than passivity and denial.

If you want to see competent female financial reporters, try CNBC World's programming starting with Squawk Box Asia and running through Squawk Box Europe. Competent, informative, _and appropriately dressed_. (It might be unfair to discuss a woman's appearance since we men have it so much easier. But out of bounds or not, a reporter's dress, hair and makeup should be professional.)

What I want more than anything from an economic reporter is someone who (a) knows what she or he is talking about, (b) understands what guests are saying, and most important (c) will push back when a guest -- especially an important guest -- is factually wrong, lies, and/or presents political dogma as fact. You don't get much of that from any US news source.

BDL


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Really, really horrible day.


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

truly sorry you had such a bad day. that's one reason it makes me nuts. it's too volatile, too nerve racking. getting back to your earlier post, while i agree that the cnbc dress code seems a little laxer with higher skirts, tighter lower tops, spike heeled boots that could kill you and heavy hair and makeup, what does that have to do with competency? as we all know 'sex sells'. god, just look at the cooking shows! it's a ratings game... what pray tell makes them incompetent? while they are not economists or have mba's, most of them graduated with journalism degrees(business) from the top 10 schools. for the most part they read off of a teleprompter...someone else's words. when they do special assignment interviews, i think they do a fairly good job. if i have a criticism it would be that they are too conservative in their interviews. there again they are ruled by a corporation...a corporation that depends on ratings. you know what makes a woman sexy? wait, don't answer that....it's not the clothes or lack thereof..smarts, intelligence, competence, confidence, moxie, knowledge...all these are empowering, and while i know this sounds opray-y empowerment is just plain sexy....to be fair,i will take your suggestion and devote some time to SB asia and europe. 

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Today sucks much, much worse. I hate Europe. 

BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

you don't have a second story do you? come on, what the hell were you gonna do with all that money anyway...live forever? oy...

yesterday...guess the fed finally figured out that no one has any money, nobody's buying anything. no borrowers, no lenders...everybody's nervous...geez people can't even afford to get divorced these days...they have to wait for the housing market to get healthier so they can sell the house so they can get the divorce...so you see my friend, it could be worse!

joey

you do have a financial advisor, no?


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

> you do have a financial advisor, no?


Sort of. Not exactly yes or no. I'm at Schwab, take private (one or two investors) classes and ask a lot of questions. But I don't have someone making decisions for me, if that's what you mean. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.

Two pieces of good news. First, I'm "long cash" right now, about two-thirds of the non-real estate is in cash, and will remain so until Europe settles down. Second, the losses today on the portion of my "portfolio" which is equity invested are barely more than half the markets' (2.4% v 5%), at least partly because because of dumb luck.

Hooray for dumb luck!

The handwriting's been on the wall for Europe since early last year. The solution is obvious. Even the half-a$$ed solution they will eventually pass is obvious. It's equally obvious that the more they diddle the worse things will get and the more it will cost PDQ. This is a lot about placating a particular, unreasonable constituency which demands punishment for "moral hazard" even though it may bring down the entire continent. Just ridiculous.

There's no suggestion of American parallels here, but feel free to draw your own inferences.

Still sucks. Not just for me. Everyone's taking a beating, and that sucks mightily.

BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

yeah,  a lot of people here have lost a lot, but then again they had a lot to lose...i can't feel too awful for someone  who has lost there 3rd house...it's the everyday hard working common folk who bought into the american dream and are now just trying to stay afloat and not to get forclosed on that upsets me most...

joey

i'm with charlie as well


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## gonefishin (Nov 6, 2004)

ChefBillyB said:


> I invest long term, some days I hold stocks three or four hours. I learned in 98, 99, before the DOT COM crash to take profit. I aways tell people when your dancing in the streets, bragging about how much money your making, SELL............Waiting for the Euro to be Parity with the dollar............Lots of problems in Europe, just the beginning..................


Nicely said ChefBillyB!

Taking profit is something that a person must learn to do...it's not always an easy thing to learn. When the market is going up, it goes up in swings. This gives you a chance to both sell high and buy again. When it goes down, it also goes down in swings...giving you opportunity to take losses.

There are times to make money and there are times not to lose money. I don't mind being down some value during a retracement period where the market is after higher highs and higher lows. But when the market is after lower highs and lower lows, I'll step aside and wait for a new entry point. This way I not only ensure that I do not suffer the losses of a larger downswing, but also that I have the money and confidence to re-enter when the price is low and where I have strong support.

BDL, yeah, this is certainly a tough market. But you have got choices. I remember in 2008 I watched my account dwindle down to half, I told myself I would not make that choice again...regardless what others are doing.

Dan


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

i'm thinking we should rename it 'woe street'

joey


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

boar_d_laze said:


> Today sucks much, much worse. I hate Europe.
> 
> BDL


don't hate europe...they are in the worse shape of the planet...no exporting to the states, high unemployment, rioting in the streets.....it's because this thing is so global that to me makes it even scarier...then of course there's always the chinese......

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Have you ever had Chinese cheese? 

It's hard to discuss China meaningfully since so much of the information we get from them is... shall we say... wishful thinking. They could be heading towards a stall or possibly even a bust... but very hard to tell. 

The EU just turned down an offer from China to buy some of the worst European debt in exchange for trading concessions. China may have an excess capacity problem, they've never really developed their domestic markets, and in the meantime the real-estate markets in their biggest cities are showing signs of stress. We all know what happens when the RE market cracks -- credit crisis. 

The US markets semi-demi-partly-stabilized (like buffet-table pannacotta on a warm day) on the rumor that EU political/financial people will meet over the weekend and hammer out a way to kick the can down the road. 

BDL


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

First Greece, now Italy.  What's the future of the Euro and Euro Zone?

Love to see Berlusconi forced out.  Odds?  He's a survivor.  I give it 7:5 he makes it through the next couple of days.  The guy has as many political lives as a cockroach. 

Stll pazzo,

BDL


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

There's a perfectly good reason none of us are billionaires. You should have taken the bet, while I shouldn't have made it. From this morning's FiTi feed:

*Breaking News*
 

Berlusconi loses majority in crunch voteSilvio Berlusconi's centre-right government has lost its majority in parliament in a key vote on last year's accounts that came after mounting concern in bond markets piled pressure on the embattled Italian prime minister by pushing borrowing costs to fresh euro-era highs
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/7AKRN0/GI2IQ/XHBP1M/HYROZ4/VU/h?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=8 
.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

He's doing it again.

Whimper. [:curled up in fetal position smilie:]

BDL


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## gonefishin (Nov 6, 2004)

Hey BDL!

Fundamental news is nothing but a bunch of excuses. This Euro problem is the same Euro problem they have had from the start, always with Italy as one of the problems. They tell everyone that things are rosy, and watch the market go up...only to return back down in a little bit. Fundamentals don't tell you where the market is going, how the market approaches and responds to technical levels will let you know. Fundamentals do little more than give you needed movement to reach the technical levels.

When they talk all they say is blah, blah, blahblah...blah, blah, blah!

things will be rosy again soon, lol



EUR/USD

Dan


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## esquared (Oct 14, 2011)

I have been mostly out of the investments market since 2006. Only thing interesting right now is oil and if there is war with Iran I am going all in with the money I keep out for investments and getting out on the way up. I have made a lot of money in the market and believe me I took the profit right out and got out. I am only interested if there are big gains to be made like when oil jumped from $9 to $40 a barrel and like when Netscape and Yahoo stock soared, I bought into both and sold on the way up. The markets are nothing more than legalized gambling and I believe they operate under a exemption under federal law on gambling. People get too greedy and I have watched many friends lose everything because they wanted to see the price go up and when it went down they waited for it to recover. My aunt lost over 4 million as she has faith in the system but my uncle lost about 500K because he saw what was coming and got out. 

The best investment I ever made was in guns, specifically machine guns. What I bought in the 80's for 2K is now worth anywhere between 12K and 50K each depending on how many are available for citizen ownership. Absolutely cleaned house with these investments. If I had a time machine I would go back and buy more. If you want to put your money where it will make you a lot now open a gun store, a friend of mine pulls in 40K a month after taxes and sits on the phone and the net for 10 hours a day brokering guns for people too stupid to direct buy themselves and drop ship to their dealers. He has ZERO in inventory yet sells 200- 600 guns a month, big money to be made.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Today the market un-sucks. 

We're currently overweight oil, and as it happens those stocks are doing well today.  However, a NYMEX price of around $100 probably isn't sustainable in the same way the $80 - $90 range is.  Although the US appears to be the "flight to quality" destination, our economy is in better shape than a lot of analysts thought last quarter, the dollar looks to strengthen slightly, nevertheless I expect prices to fall in the near short term, and the share prices to retrench accordingly through the winter.  Oil stocks aren't exactly cyclical or secular but a sort of mixed bag, and I've pegged them as a long term hold until late spring, early summer.  My intention is to just ride along with them.

I'll probably dump my utilities pretty soon, if anyone cares.

BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

bdl,

if i knew your address i'd send you the finest pair of chopsticks i could find..highly polished bone with abalone and pearl inlay...something durable enough to last a lifetime!

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

China has, shall we say, issues.  Whether they're just a passing cloud or the harbinger of a serious storm is unclear. 

Harbinger is a good word, isn't it?

You're too young to remember those halcyon days during the Reagan era, when the Japanese economy was forever and Americans wished themselves to be business samurai.  After that they all decided they wanted to be just like the Germans. 

At least we choose cultures with good food.  Embarrassing as it is to admit, I already have the silver mounted, inlaid chopsticks.

BDL


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## siduri (Aug 13, 2006)

I just happened into this forum, where i never tread - and was astonished.  I hope some day i can retire and have enough money to keep my 900 sq foot apartment and be able to visit my kids.  I doubt it, though.  I will probably have to work till i die. 

I have a friend who inherited a ton of money, and whose husband managed to earn a ton of money as well (in a way i consider immoral - doing "research" for drug companies).  She was complaining to me back in the crisis last year that she lost something like 10 thousand dollars in america (where her parents left her their fortunes).  I told her, well, just think, you had ten thousand dollars to lose!  I wish i had that much aside.

Please take a little perspective.

My own feeling is that all this mess began in the States with wild and frenzied investments, incredible and outrageous greed.  When I was a kid the richest person i knew had maybe 10 or 20 times the salary as the poorest.  The average worker (factory worker, fireman, clerk) was able to buy a house (with a wife and kids that didn;t work). Now there's no way a person with a job like that can even pay a lousy rent on one salary. They can;t do it even with two salaries, without going into debt.   Now the rich person earns thousands of times as much as the average worker. Does that make sense?  How many boats do they need?  How many houses in how many luxury places?  what can they possibly do with all that money?  That kind of growth is like cancer and now we pay the price.

On a happier note, last night i rode around rome with my husband to celebrate the fall of Berlusconi with a big italian flag out the window of the car (as they do here when italy wins a soccer match) and a sign on the back saying "festa della liberazione" - (which is the holiday that celebrated italy liberated from fascism) and got lots of cheers and horns beeping and thumbs up, V signs and fists waving.  Plus lots of laughs.


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

bdl,

you mean halcyon daze? i remember the reagan era and his 'nomics despite the 70's! was never a fan and could never get my head around his particular brand of politicking.  i grew up in d'c.'s inner city where protests, demonstrations and sit in's were the norm. i salute the 'occupy wall streeters'. american profits soared in the 80's and we were definately living the high life. but is was a bubble, a glass house...doomed to be shattered.....you as a californian should especially remember when the floor fell out from under you...you guys were first....more later...time limit's up...

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

durangojo,

Where will I go for hand patting and cold beer if this thread gets shut down for politics? 

BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

the bar like everyone else!....mea culpa, mea culpa.....

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Fitch Ratings, why do you hate me?

BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

i have no idea what fitch ratings are but one final word, i swear...

because of global 'politics' the world economy and all markets are affected...period...so it's still in the frame of this thread to me....otre vez

joey

i still think you should take your silver inlaid chopsticks out of the box and polish them though...and maybe sure you got a few extra pairs on hand for family and friends..okay i'm done...


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

_Fitch Ratings is a global rating agency dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through objective and balanced credit opinions, research and data._ In short they're a boutique which rates offshore stuff. They're very pessimistic about Europe. Today was mostly good news about the US economy and iffy news about Europe. The market was listening to the European news more than our own, and wasn't doing well until Fitch published a report at around 3 PM ET this afternoon. Then it fell off a cliff.

It's an interesting report, well reasoned, but perhaps a bit overdrawn in my opinion. There are a few possible answers and none of them are very complicated but none of them are going to be popular with the electorates of those countries which bear the biggest burdens (one way or another), so politically difficult. Nevertheless you can be pretty sure that the EU and EUB will do the minimum necessary to prevent complete chaos -- even if that will delay real recovery for many years. They may not be the strongest, most decisive group in history but they're not complete idiots and they don't want the edifice to come crashing down any more than we do.

Accessing the report itself requires a subscription. Here's Fitch's precis:


> [h2]Eurozone Contagion Threatens Outlook for U.S. Banks[/h2]
> Though U.S. banks have manageable direct exposures to the stressed European markets (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), further contagion poses a serious risk, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report. Fitch believes that unless the Eurozone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen.


BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

boar_d_laze said:


> China has, shall we say, issues. Whether they're just a passing cloud or the harbinger of a serious storm is unclear.
> 
> Harbinger is a good word, isn't it?
> 
> ...


yes bdl, harbinger is a great word...much more so than dead canary!

joey


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

you know what really sucks migo?

a woman who lies on her food stamp application gets 4 years in jail and jon corzine who singlehanedly drove mf global into the ground and put his lover on the payroll while governor and lots of other nefarious things, gets nothing, nada, zip...what dark little corner is he hiding in like the raton he is? why shouldn't he be made accountable?.....what was the line in the movie 'wall street' ?... "it's unethical, but not illegal".....geez, at least madoff is behind bars!...

joey


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

durangojo,

You're singing my tune.  Poor people are simply not punished enough for being poor.  Take the three word phrase, "criminal justice system," and ask yourself which word does not belong.

BDL


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## durangojo (Jul 30, 2007)

so perhaps a duet...a blues tune in the style of miles davis or mose allison..'the woe street blues"...could be funny and fun!  gotta say, you old guys rock!!!

joey

against all odds i vote for 'system'....


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## indygal (Dec 7, 2010)

BDL, you are a brave man.  My money all came out back in 2001 because of naked shorts and other fraud.  I've never regretted a minute.

DD


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Not that brave.  Most of my investment research time is spent in the fetal position, whimpering.

BDL


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## Iceman (Jan 4, 2011)

_My Captain My Sensei ..._ I refuse to hear such from you. _On another point though .......... _



Longtime Cubs icon gets a major honor

_*Nine-time All-Star Ron Santo's legacy gets a boost almost a year after his death.*_

_(Sorry for the hyjack. This is just such a big thing for me it's like a great day in the market.)_


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## siduri (Aug 13, 2006)

I don't know much about economics, but isn't the US the king of debt?  Hasn't the US survived on debt, both as a country and as individuals? Isn't that how the government works, go way into debt and then go to war to pay it off?  Hasn't the US allowed banks to give people who can't afford it loans left and right for decades?  (Back in the 70s when I was married, you could get a mortgage for about 2 percent of your house's value here in Italy.  I call that cautious.). 

I had to wait years to get a credit card, and had to prove a reasonable income first.  College kids in the US get sent several credit cards each, which they don;t even have to ask for, already functional, so they can go into debt right away and learn the american way.  Then the credit card company is allowed to increase the interest at will!  Changing a contract mid stream.  That's even legal! (Who let THAT law go through i wonder, and who paid their campaign expenses?)

Pay people less and then make it easy for them to go into debt.  Good economics.  Cut their benefits and make them happy they don;t have to pay more taxes, deftly hiding the fact that the people cutting their benefits are the ones who should be paying the extra taxes, not them.  Good economics. 

But then, I don't know anything about economics. 

Bail out the banks and demand nothing in return.  That's supposed to be a "free market economy" - isn't that sort of a form of welfare for banks?  In a "free market economy" i thought that if your company was failing and some other company had the money to bail you out, they would also expect to have controlling shares in the company.  The government could have said, "ok, we bail you out, but you are ours!"  How many whiny banks would have gone to mama government then?  But i guess i don't know anything about economics.


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

> I don't know much about economics, but isn't the US the king of debt?


No. Not even close. The US has a very low debt/GDP ratio. 


> Hasn't the US survived on debt, both as a country and as individuals?


The question isn't well framed, and difficult to answer without going to great and tedious length.


> Isn't that how the government works, go way into debt and then go to war to pay it off?


No. According to "Keynsian economics" there is a right time and a wrong time for governments to acquire debt.

War typically leads to more debt, rather than the reverse. "Typically" is probably too weak. Offhand I can't think of any exceptions which don't involve seizing assets, something which doesn't really occur in the modern world.

In fact, one of the reasons the US annual budget deficit rose so much is because the Iraq war debt, which was originally "accounted" for as a "special, non-budget" expense, went "on the books" in 2009/2010. 


> Hasn't the US allowed banks to give people who can't afford it loans left and right for decades? (Back in the 70s when I was married, you could get a mortgage for about 2 percent of your house's value here in Italy. I call that cautious.).


No. Real estate loan credit requirements became very loose during the "bubble" period from around 2001 'til 2008 (when the bubble burst and credit contracted). Those lax requirements were partly the result of an administration which considered a rise in home ownership rates as one of its metrics of success; but mostly as a result of greed and stupidity in the insurance, securities, and banking industries; and not just in the US.

I'm not sure what point you're making about Italian banks. Italian banks have almost no liquidity compared to debt, and the entire Italian banking industry was (or maybe still is) on the verge of systemic and catastrophic failure. As a result, it seems likely that Italy (as well as some of the other weaker EU players) will be forced to institute "austerity" measures which will keep it in recession for a long, long time. 


> I had to wait years to get a credit card, and had to prove a reasonable income first. College kids in the US get sent several credit cards each, which they don;t even have to ask for, already functional, so they can go into debt right away and learn the american way. Then the credit card company is allowed to increase the interest at will! Changing a contract mid stream. That's even legal! (Who let THAT law go through i wonder, and who paid their campaign expenses?)


The bank/credit industry does a lot of lobbying. They spend a lot of money to make things come out their way. Both US parties have a lousy record in this respect. It's easier to point to the people who stood against it than to those who actively assisted.


> Pay people less and then make it easy for them to go into debt. Good economics.


If you're saying easy credit increases personal debt, you're right. And?


> Cut their benefits and make them happy they don;t have to pay more taxes, deftly hiding the fact that the people cutting their benefits are the ones who should be paying the extra taxes, not them. Good economics.


Sentences without definite subjects confuse me, but I do get what you're saying. The poor simply can't be punished enough, while the rich require continuous rewards in order to enjoy their wealth. Nothing is hidden deftly, or hidden at all unless you count transparent lies as "hiding." People believe what they want to believe because they want to believe it. That's human nature, not economics. 


> Bail out the banks and demand nothing in return. That's supposed to be a "free market economy" - isn't that sort of a form of welfare for banks?


If the US government hadn't "bailed out the banks," the global credit crisis would have been far, far worse than it was. I don't think "free market economy" applies. Our economy, including the financial industry, has enjoyed a fair degree of regulation since the Great Depression.


> In a "free market economy" i thought that if your company was failing and some other company had the money to bail you out, they would also expect to have controlling shares in the company. The government could have said, "ok, we bail you out, but you are ours!" How many whiny banks would have gone to mama government then?


We don't have a completely "free market economy," but we do have a constitutional form of government. The executive branch could and cannot nationalize the banks. Congress could have passed laws making government aid more costly and consequential, but did not do so. Had the US government not acted decisively and immediately to save the banks the global economic system would quite likely have failed and the entire world been thrown into massive depression.

Unlike you, I wish they'd done more in the line of "bail outs," for instance saving Lehman. Like you, I would have liked more and better regulation; would have liked the government to pick up more of the bad paper (to hasten the speed of recovery); would have liked a bigger stimulus package more directly targeted at infrastructure, etc., etc.

You probably would have been happier with my solutions than with those provided by the people who actually made and make policy. But we don't have me, we have the government _we elected_. 


> But i guess i don't know anything about economics.


Because you're cursed with intelligence, good sense and a good heart there are a lot of things governments do which won't make sense.

This has been an enjoyable thread, it would be a shame if it got shut down for "politics."

BDL


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## petemccracken (Sep 18, 2008)

Perhaps if it remains educational it will escape shutdown.

Problems occur in discussing religion or politics when personal viewpoints surpass issues, and that is the predominant feature of internet opinions, most with a very loose connection to facts.


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## chefbillyb (Feb 8, 2009)

Europe is toast, Congress is full of self centered do nothings that can't decide on a bal budget. The stock mkt is full of people saying buy, buy, buy, then the next minute someone come up with "we will be in a depression in 2014" what the Hell !!!!!!!!!!!! This market is crazy, I can't see how anyone could Say we have a good future with all the head winds.....I'm out of the market until after the first of the year.....................I may be nuts, but I'm not crazy.......................ChefBillyB


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

Ice, yes to Ron Santos.  Sorry about the pathetic whimpering, but there you go.

Pete you're a sensible fellow.  A gentleman, actually.

Billy, Congress is under no obligation to pass a "balanced budget," and has only seldom done so in the last half century; iirc, '96 and '98.   Curious:  What happens after the first of the year? 

BDL


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## chefbillyb (Feb 8, 2009)

HI BDL, in some countries its a law to have a balanced budget, sounds good to me, members of Congress could never balance a budget without stepping on toes in their own state. Congress may not have an obligation to pass a balanced budget but, we do have a moral obligation to future generations.

As far as being out of the Market until the first of the year, I hope to have better picture on Europe, China's lower GDP to 6-7. I don't like the prices of stocks right now, I would like a lower entry point.......................take care and have a great holiday............................


boar_d_laze said:


> Ice, yes to Ron Santos. Sorry about the pathetic whimpering, but there you go.
> 
> Pete you're a sensible fellow. A gentleman, actually.
> 
> ...


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## boar_d_laze (Feb 13, 2008)

In our form of government, a "balanced budget" requirement could only come as a Constitutional Amendment. If there were such an Amendment, how would Congress be able to finance emergency spending like wars?

BDL


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## nicko (Oct 5, 2001)

Closing this down it is clearly stated we don't allow political or religious discussions here.


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